Verified record
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Automated trading on Kalshi 15-minute markets
§ 01 · Membership

Learn the method

Every 15 minutes, our model's fair price for each market you subscribe to.

Fair value is what a contract should cost if the odds are right. When the market's price drifts away from it, that gap is where every trade starts. Members see it for their markets, every window, along with the settled trades and the lessons behind them.

Members only
How the system works
  • Odds come from stochastic calculus: a lognormal price model, the same math as a digital option under Black-Scholes.
  • Volatility is realized volatility, measured from live tick data on a sub-second price feed.
  • Orders go out in about 20 ms from a server in the exchange's region.
  • Every rule is tested on recorded data before it trades.
  • Risk is capped per window and per day, with an automatic pause after any loss.

Prices are placeholders until launch.

§ 02

Who we are

A builder and a psychologist. The system, and the discipline to follow it.

Co-founder · Systems

Harvard. Background in private equity and quantitative trading. Designed and built the system: the execution engine, the risk rules, and the data testing behind every rule.

Co-founder · Behavior

UCLA, Psychology. Training in statistics and research methods. Leads the behavioral side: why traders lose to overconfidence, chasing losses and revenge trading, and how to measure it in the data. Writes the weekly lessons on discipline.

Not affiliated with or endorsed by Harvard or UCLA.

§ 03

The record

Every settled trade, both accounts, after fees. Delayed, never live.

More numbers
Each line is one trading day, every trade in orderDrawn from the record
§ 04

The right way to trade

Eight rules. None are secret. All are harder to follow than they look.

01

Only trade when the price is wrong

If the edge doesn't beat the fees, we pass.

02

Size small

A bad day should sting, not hurt.

03

Cap the worst case

Loss limits per window and per day, set in advance.

04

After a loss, everything sits out

Every market, both accounts, one hour.

05

Never chase

No doubling up to win it back.

06

Speed and discipline over prediction

We don't out-guess the market. We act fast and follow the rules.

07

Read the whole record

Wins are small, losses are bigger. Only the total counts.

08

Test before you trust

Past data, then paper, then small real money.

Ideas we tested and dropped (3)
  • Machine-learning price model Dropped
  • Buying after sharp 10¢ drops Dropped
  • Trading for rebates Dropped
§ 05

Every trade

One square per settled trade, oldest first. Green won, ink lost.